In predictive mode, you can use TrendMiner to predict future evolution of batch runs, transitions, or continuous processes, based on previously observed historical behavior.
TrendMiner's predictive mode is based on the similarity search. This means it works in a fundamentally different way to model based predictive technologies and therefore holds a couple of advantages:
- No need for extensive data preparation activities or to update models.
- Predictive mode always has access to the latest data and incorporates plant changes.
- Adjustments to tags or history range updates are immediate in effect (no model retraining).
- No difficult black box predictions to understand or to accept. Predictive mode always links back to historical time periods that are used to make predictions.
Setting up predictive mode
For predictive mode to work, first select the tags and/or attributes of interest and navigate to the predictive mode menu. By default, the setup menu is shown where you have the following sections:
In the section Tags / attributes you can choose which of the visible tags and/or attributes will be used to calculate the prediction. For the tags and/or attributes included, you can define to match on "Absolute values" or "Signal shape" which works similarly to the similarity search. The predicted data for the deselected tags will also be shown on the focus chart.
Under the Tags / attributes section the Precision factor section is located. Here you can define the minimum score and the number of best matches to be displayed.
This would be the minimum score for a match to be meaningful. If no matches are found above the chosen score threshold, no predictions will be shown.
The default value is set to 70% and the highest matches will be visualized.
Number of matches (1-5)
Shows the number of predictive signals that should be displayed.
It is possible that fewer signals will be displayed if insufficient matches above the minimum score are found.
Note: Minimum score needs to be 5% or higher while there can only be a maximum of 5 best matches.
Enabling predictive mode
Once all desired tags are included and the precision option filled in, clicking the "Enable predictive mode" button starts predictive mode.
The setup menu updates to an overview of the selected settings. Below the details you can find the "Edit conditions" and the "Disable predictive mode" link options.
In addition, the following happens:
- The view is updated so that the first 80% of the focus chart corresponds to the recent past, and the remaining 20% of the picture refers to the near future.
- Predictive mode automatically adds layers and updates them based on similarity with the actual, visible trends. The base period is indicated with a solid line, and the added layers are shown in dotted lines.
- Predictive time periods are identified based on the data in the context time range, with exception of data that is filtered out. The number of layers and the minimally required similarity can be controlled by changing the settings.
Clicking the "Edit conditions" option returns you to the setup menu where you can adjust the settings. To switch off predictive mode, click on the blue predictive mode icon situated in the view bar on the right. Alternatively, click the "Disable predictive mode" button at the base of the overview menu situated on the left of the focus chart.