TH NextGen - Predictive mode

In predictive mode, you can use TrendMiner to predict future evolution of batch runs, transitions, or continuous processes, based on previously observed historical behaviour.

  • Context
  • How to operate predictive mode

Context

As predictive mode is based on TrendMiner's search technology, it works in a fundamentally different way to model based predictive technologies. The advantages of which are:

  • No extensive data preparation activities required.
  • No need to update models. Predictive mode always has access to the latest data and incorporates plant changes automatically.
  • Effects of adjusting tag set or history range are immediate (no model retraining).
  • No difficult black box predictions to understand or accept. Predictive mode always links back to historical time periods that are used to make predictions.

How to operate predictive mode

  1. For predictive mode to work, first select tags and attributes of interest.
  2. To switch predictive mode on, click the "predictive mode menu icon" PM1.png in the TrendHub menu. 
  3. Look to your list of tags and attributes and set each to "Absolute values" or "Signal shape".
  4. Set a minimum score under "PRECISION FACTOR", and "Number of best matches". 
  5. Click on the "Enable predictive mode" button situated at the bottom of the TAGS/ATTRIBUTES list.

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Explanation of options:

  • Tag selection: select a subset of tags that will be used to identify historically similar behavior that can be employed to predict. By default, all visible tags are selected.
  • Minimum score (5%-100%): minimum score for a match to be meaningful. If no matches are found above the desired score threshold, no predictions will be shown. 
  • Number of best matches selected (1-5): number of predictive signals that should be displayed. Note that fewer signals may be displayed if insufficient matches above the minimum score threshold can be found.

When predictive mode is switched on:

  •  A blue predictive mode icon appears at the top right of the focus chart.

PM3.png

In addition:

  • The view is updated so that the first 80% of the picture corresponds to the recent past, and the remaining 20% of the picture refers to the near future.
  • Predictive mode automatically adds layers and updates them based on similarity (or absolute values) with the actual, visible trends. The base period is indicated with a solid line. The added layers are shown in dotted lines.
  • Predictive time periods are identified based on the data in the context time range, with exception of data that is filtered out. The number of layers and the minimally required similarity can be controlled by changing the settings.

To switch off predictive mode, click on the blue predictive mode icon situated at the top right of the focus chart. Alternatively, click the "Disable predictive mode" button at the base of the "PREDICTIVE MODE" panel situated left of the focus chart.

To edit the conditions you originally laid out, click on the "Edit conditions" button in the "PREDICTIVE MODE" panel. The panel will revert to edit mode and you can edit the options as necessary. 

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